NFL 2011 Predictions

It's the most wonderful time of the year! The NFL kicks off next Thursday, so it's also time for my annual NFL prediction post. As I did last year, I'll forecast the winner of each division along with the two Super Bowl teams. In order to gauge whether I should be a professional prognosticator, I'll include the predictions of two published sources. Last year I listed Sporting News and Pro Football Weekly, so for a change-up this year I'm going with Lindy's Sports Pro Football 2011 Preview (a newsstand glossy magazine) and Football Outsiders Almanac 2011* (a really fun, well-written book that is big on rigorous statistical analysis of the type I do not understand). As there are four teams in each division, pure random chance should result in a 25% success rate. Last year, my predictions and those of the two magazines each resulted in a 25% success rate. Can we beat blind luck this time around? Record your predictions in the comments section for posterity, because when January rolls around we'll find out in a results post.

AFC EAST

Lindy's: New England

Football Outsiders: New England

My Pick: New England (someday we will look back at this decade's Patriots with amazement)

AFC WEST

Lindy's: San Diego

Football Outsiders: San Diego

My Pick: Denver (my one surprise team to add a little flavour to these proceedings)

AFC NORTH

Lindy's: Baltimore

Football Outsiders: Pittsburgh

My Pick: Pittsburgh (Big Ben just gets it done . . .)

AFC SOUTH

Lindy's: Indianapolis

Football Outsiders: Houston

My Pick: Houston (if the defense can keep teams under thirty points, the Texans win with 31)

NFC EAST

Lindy's: Philadelphia

Football Outsiders: Philadelphia

My Pick: Dallas (they get things figured out this year and pure talent shines through)

NFC WEST

Lindy's: St. Louis

Football Outsiders: San Francisco

My Pick: Arizona (Kolb gets this team rolling in a weak division)

NFC NORTH

Lindy's: Green Bay

Football Outsiders: Green Bay

My Pick: Green Bay (Bears regress, Lions closing, Vikings at a standstill, leaving Packers on top)

NFC SOUTH

Lindy's: New Orleans

Football Outsiders: Atlanta

My Pick: New Orleans (a coin flip with Atlanta . . .)

SUPER BOWL

Lindy's: Ravens Defeat Eagles

Football Outsiders: No Prediction

My Pick: Patriots Defeat Cowboys

* Technically, Football Outsiders do not pick division winners; they run a series of 10,000 simulations or something and then come out with a mean projection of the number of wins for each team. I've simply taken the team with the highest mean projection of wins as the winner of each division.