NFL 2011 Division Champion Predictions in Retrospect

It's always fun to look back at predictions made months previously to see just how right . . . and just how wrong everyone was about who would end up winning each division in the NFL. In my original post on the 2011 season, I made my own predictions and then listed the predictions of Lindy's, Football Outsiders, and the clear winner of the regular-season weekly predictions, Prognosticatin' Steve. As in the year prior, the goal of our little experiment is to see whether my amateurish efforts are any worse than the big glossy magazines with their paid staffs. Remember, the chances of correctly picking a division winner by random chance is 25% (which is what me and two different magazines ended up with on our picks last year), so anything better than that will, for our purposes, be considered a success. Here we go!

AFC EAST

Lindy's: New England

Football Outsiders: New England

Steve: New England

My Pick: New England ("someday we will look back at this decade's Patriots with amazement")

ACTUAL WINNER: New England (a safe bet, and everyone starts out well)

AFC WEST

Lindy's: San Diego

Football Outsiders: San Diego

Steve: San Diego ("talk about a bad division")

My Pick: Denver ("my one surprise team to add a little flavour to these proceedings")

ACTUAL WINNER: Denver (I would feel smarter about this upset success, but I didn't foresee Tebow playing at all; I assumed Kyle Orton would have played well for a mediocre team in a mediocre division)

AFC NORTH

Lindy's: Baltimore

Football Outsiders: Pittsburgh

Steve: Pittsburgh

My Pick: Pittsburgh ("Big Ben just gets it done . . .")

ACTUAL WINNER: Baltimore (that Week One blowout really set things in motion for the Ravens, and they followed through . . .)

AFC SOUTH

Lindy's: Indianapolis

Football Outsiders: Houston

Steve: Indianapolis ("despite Manning's issues")

My Pick: Houston ("if the defense can keep teams under thirty points, the Texans win with 31")

ACTUAL WINNER: Houston (Steve, as good as your picks were during the regular season, your one constant blind-spot was the Manning-less Colts!)

NFC EAST

Lindy's: Philadelphia

Football Outsiders: Philadelphia

Steve: Philadelphia

My Pick: Dallas ("they get things figured out this year and pure talent shines through")

ACTUAL WINNER: New York (we all missed the boat on this one, though a Cowboys victory in Week 17 would have swung things my way . . .)

NFC WEST

Lindy's: St. Louis

Football Outsiders: San Francisco

Steve: "The division implodes from sucking too much . . . or St. Louis for purposes of this prediction"

My Pick: Arizona ("Kolb gets this team rolling in a weak division")

ACTUAL WINNER: San Francisco (Football Outsiders' heavy-duty statistical analysis came through for this one, as I never foresaw SF winning more than 7-8 games)

NFC NORTH

Lindy's: Green Bay

Football Outsiders: Green Bay

Steve: Green Bay ("though Det will be good too")

My Pick: Green Bay ("Bears regress, Lions closing, Vikings at a standstill, leaving Packers on top")

ACTUAL WINNER: Green Bay (another unanimous pick and unanimous success)

NFC SOUTH

Lindy's: New Orleans

Football Outsiders: Atlanta

Steve: New Orleans

My Pick: New Orleans ("a coin flip with Atlanta . . .")

ACTUAL WINNER: New Orleans (everyone gets this right except for Football Outsiders--methinks they need to tinker with those algorithms)

Alright, now we can tally up the big winners and even bigger losers (though actually, everyone did pretty good):

OVERALL

Lindy's: 4/8 (50%) (pretty good results, especially for being the only one to pick Baltimore in the AFC North)

Football Outsiders: 4/8 (50%) (also good, with bonus points for being the only one to foresee SF's rise in the NFC West)

Steve: 3/8 (37.5%) (still better than random chance, though worst of the four pickers here; tempted to subtract points for picking Indianapolis and St. Louis, teams that went a combined 4-28 on the year ;)

Me: 5/8 (62.5%) (a big pat on my own back for Denver)

Thus, I am left with only one conclusion: Where my job at, Lindy's and Pro Football Outsiders?!?!

As a footnote, Lindy's and I made Super Bowl picks, neither of which can come completely true. Lindy's went with Ravens defeating Eagles, I went with Patriots defeating Cowboys.

See you again in August!